After several years of declining relations between them, the chances of Turkey and Israel becoming allies might appear remote. Following the Mavi Marmara flotilla incident in 2010 in which nine Turkish “peace activists” were killed by Israeli soldiers in a botched attempt to reach Gaza, Turkey-Israel relations were in crisis. Prior to that, there had already been a serious deterioration in relations due to Turkey’s reorientation toward the Muslim world and an abandonment of pro-Western policy.
However, things change, and in the world of international relations, shifting alliances due to unforeseen events are not new. The “Arab Spring,” that series of anti-regime protests which have swept through the greater Middle East in the first half of 2011, has opened up new possibilities.
According to Alon Ben-Meir, Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, it’s no co-incidence that in this time of chaos in the Middle East, Turkey and Israel, which he calls “the two established democratic nations of the region,” show signs of drawing together. He refers to them as “rare anchors of stability” with “shared strategic interests.” Israel-Turkey reconciliation, he says, is imminent.
If this indeed materializes, in what way did this remarkable change come about?
Shifting Middle East Power Balance
At the beginning of 2011, Turkey and Iran were the two most influential non-Arab players in the Middle East. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all opposed Iran, albeit for different reasons. Their goal was to limit the threat posed by Iran, and its Arab proxies—Syria, and the terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah. However, Turkey had been making overtures to both Iran and Syria, and also to Hamas, and its crisis with Israel had come to a head.
Now, in the wake of the Arab Spring, there is a repositioning of alliances. One relevant change for Turkey is that the Syrian regime is now precarious, and with that comes the weakening of both Hamas and Hezbollah—thus a weakening of Iran.
Turkish political writer Meliha Benli Altunisik sees all this as an opportunity for Turkey to change direction: “As for Turkey, the uprisings challenged Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East. The instability and uncertainty in the region directly goes against the basic premises of Turkey’s policies toward the region and thus requires a shift in terms of strategy.”
Turkey's Growing Aspirations
Turkey is officially a secular state, but with a population that is virtually 100% Muslim and with an increasingly Islamist party at the helm, that secularism faces challenges. As reported by the BBC, Turkish Prime Minister Recip Erdogan, in his victory speech after his party’s latest win in the June 2011 election, hinted that Turkey would be the representative for the Middle East and Muslims, saying: "Believe me, Sarajevo won today as much as Istanbul, Beirut won as much as Izmir, Damascus won as much as Ankara, Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin, the West Bank, Jerusalem won as much as Diyarbakir."
One indication of Turkey’s repositioning is described by American-Israeli journalist Caroline Glick. She reports that Turkey’s proposed military incursion into Syria to protect civilians there and its accommodation of fleeing Syrian refugees within Turkey’s borders are evidence that it wants to expand its influence in Syria, once the Assad regime falls.
Successor Regimes: Pro-Western or Pro-Turkish?
However, nothing is clear-cut in Middle East politics. Turkey simply cannot predict how the political changes will evolve. Writing in the Foreign Policy Journal, Daniel Wagner and Daniel Jackman have this to say about the uncertainty faced by Turkey: “It does not know how the evolving political change in the region will ultimately turn out, whether successor regimes are likely to be pro-Western or Turkish, or what the impact on the regional power balance will be.”
And so Turkey’s foreign policy is torn between the Kemalist approach aimed at preserving a secular nation and keeping it secure, or the neo-Ottoman approach aimed at gaining a larger presence in the region and beyond.
Until the future is more clear, Turkey will likely continue its policy of soft diplomacy—refraining from military engagement or imposing financial sanctions—and work on new alliances.
Implications for Israel: the Threat of the Muslim Brotherhood
Although regime changes and shifting power structures could potentially hold great danger for Israel, the reality is more likely to be that the resulting confusion could work to Israel’s benefit—at least in the short term. Altunisik states, “These developments have repercussions for Israel as well. A grand coalition against Israel is unlikely as the Arab world will be dealing with its own problems for some time.”
Although an anti-Israel coalition might be unlikely, Turkey’s rise would affect Israel negatively due to its Muslim Brotherhood connections. As Professor Efraim Inbar of Bar-Ilan University states, “Ankara has aligned itself with radical Islamist forces in the Middle East, siding with Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.Within this framework, good relations with Israel are a burden.”
Glick also warns of the dangers that await Israel should Turkey achieve new status: “The reestablishment of a Turkish sphere of influence in the Arab world in Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority and Egypt through the Muslim Brotherhood will be extremely dangerous for Israel. With its jihadist ideology, its powerful conventional military forces ... Turkey's rise as a regional hegemon would present Israel with a difficult challenge.”
And so, in the Middle East the old power alliances have split, and new ones are forming; old regimes have fallen, and new governments with uncertain ideologies are being formed. In the midst of this change, it’s obvious that Turkey’s influence in the region is growing.
Turkey and Israel—Allies?
Although Inbar and Glick see danger for Israel in the rise of Islamist Turkey, others such as Ben-Meir, are raising a new possibility—one that seems unlikely given past history, yet fascinating to contemplate. There are only two stable and democratic states in the region: Turkey and Israel. In times of rapid regional regime changes, alliance with a close and stable neighbour state is something to be desired.
Nothing about the Middle East is simple or predictable. While signs are positive for a Turkish-Israeli alliance, it isn’t a certainty. A dark note has entered the process: Erdogan is determined to obtain an Israeli apology for the deaths of the nine Turks in the Gaza flotilla. Equally determined, Israel refuses to do so.
Ben-Meir, states, “Back-channel efforts have produced numerous drafts of nuanced statements of Israeli acknowledgement, but an outright apology has been refused by Israelis, whose internal investigation revealed that the Israeli Defense Forces operated in self-defense.” Some Israeli politicians object even to the “nuanced statements.” Inbar opposes any apology: “An unjustified Israeli apology will not repair relations, as Turkey is no longer interested in a strategic partnership.”
However, in a display of common sense, and what could be seen as a conciliatory gesture, Erdogan’s Islamist government decided this year to pressure Turkish non-governmental organizations to disengage from the latest flotilla. Since the Gaza Flotilla 2011ended in fiasco, this proved to be a fortuitous decision.
How soon, in the rapidly evolving new Middle East, will this alliance come about—if it is to materialize at all? Surprisingly soon, according to Ben-Meir: “With renewed understanding of the benefits of their close cooperation and partnership, Israel-Turkey reconciliation today, should reason prevail, is imminent.”
Whichever way events unfold in the Middle East, there’s no doubt that these are interesting times.
Sources:
- Altunisik, Meliha Benli, "New Regional Landscape in the Middle East," Hurriyet Daily News, July 21, 2011 (Accessed July 23, 2011)
- BBC News, "Turkey election:Victorious Erdogan pledges 'consensus,' June 13, 2011 (Accessed July 23, 2011)
- Ben-Meir, Alon, "Is Turkish-Israeli Reconciliation Imminent?" The Huffington Post, July 5, 2011 (Accessed July 23, 2011)
- Glick, Caroline, "Rival hegemons in Syria," CarolineGlick.com, July 8, 2011 (Accessed July 23, 2011)
- Inbar, Efraim, "Tough Talk with Turkey," The Jerusalem Post, July 20, 2011 (Accessed July 23, 2011)
- Wagner, Daniel and Daniel Jackman, "Upheaval in the Middle East: An Opportunity for Turkey," Foreign Policy Journal, May 21, 2011 (Accessed July 23, 2011)
Jen L. Jones - Based in Canada, Jones writes on human rights, history,and the natural world. She focuses also on Turkish and Scottish travel and ...
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